Monday, December 9, 2019

Scandinavian Trip (16-28 Jun 2019)

Scandinavian Trip (16-28 Jun 2019)

16 Jun, Sun
Turkish Airlines 55
depart Singapore 23:25 Terminal 1

17 Jun, Mon
5:25 Istanbul 7:30 Turkish Airlines 1783
Arrive Copenhagen 9:45am, Terminal 2
🚃 shuttle bus to Terminal 3 to take train to Copenhagen central station (15min)
check in/drop bags @ hotel

(1)Walked to Town hall
(2)From there to Ved Stranden to take the Grand canal tour (among many interesting places, also saw Little Mermaid from the back
(3)Had lunch at Cafe Norden, Super yummy and full
(4)Walked part of Stroget shopping street
(5)Christianborg Palace
(6)Back to town hall to take the Copenhagen Train tour

stay@Grand Hotel, Copenhagen

COPENHAGEN FOOD
- Apparently red sausage hotdog, Polse is a thing (Polse Kompagniet or Den økologiske pølsemand DOP)
- Smorrebrod (it's an open sandwich kind of thing) – Aamanns Etablissement (Mich star) or Royal Smushi Café or Peder Ox but apparently everywhere has this
- Shawarma!!! street food kinda thing
- Falafel!!!
- Try their roast pork, fishcakes and meatballs!
- Host – Nordic food restaurant which is apparently good
- other random restaurants: Uformel, 2
- Grod (basically porridge but can like eat for breakfast?)

DESSERTS
- Raspberry bars (Meyers Bageri or Lauras Bakery)
- and ofc all the other bakery foods :>

18 Jun, Tue

(1)Nyhaven
(2)Amalienborg Palace
(3)Torvehallerne food street
(4)National gallery
(5)Round Tower
(6)Walked the whole of Str
Back to hotel to rest
(7)Tivoli gardens after 9:00pm

stay@Grand Hotel, Copenhagen

19 Jun, Wed

(1)National Museum

14:00 — from Hotel to DFDS by Bus #26 (30 Mins)
⛴Copenhagen to Oslo by Ferry
16:30 — departure DFDS Terminal, Crown Seaways
On Ferry
Deck 5, Room 5432

stay on Ferry

20 Jun, Thur

9:45 Arrive Oslo
10:45 Info Centre
11:20 To hotel to drop off luggages

(1)walked along Akerselva river
  • graffiti art
(2)Mathallen street food court
(3)Munch Museum
(4)Oslo opera house

stay@Anker Hotel, Oslo

21 Jun, Fri

(1)Tram and Ferry to Bygdøy
(2)Norwegian Folk Museum
(3)Viking ship museum
(4)City hall area
(5)Akershus castle and Fortress
(6)Ferry to Bygdøy again and back to City Hall
(7)Aker Brygge

stay@Anker Hotel, Oslo

22 Jun, Sat

Check out @ 10:00

(1)Royal Palace
(2)Nobel Peace Center
(3)Astrup Fearnley Museum of Modern Art
(4)Watched Oslo Pride parade

🚃 Oslo to Stockholm
5 hr 50 mins
16:56 Oslo S — Stockholm Central 22:47
💤 😴

stay@Queen's Hotel, Stockholm

23 Jun, Sun

(1) walked down Drottninggatan to Old town (Gamla stan)
(2) royal palace
(3) 24 hr Hop on-off boat
(4) Lunch @ Grill Ruby (meatballs and sausage)
(5) more rides on hop on-off boat

stay@Queen's Hotel, Stockholm

24 Jun, Mon

(1) stroll down the Drottninggatan to take the boat
(2) nice ride around
(3) stroll around and watched a free concert by Chicago Consort at the Kungsträdgården
(4) out of Queen's and move to Radisson
(5) check into Radisson
(6) walked to Solna to check out the big mall and bought dinner

stay@Radisson Blu Royal Park Hotel

25 Jun, Tue

(1) Hiking around lake (9:30-16:30)

stay@Radisson Blu Royal Park Hotel

26 Jun, Wed

drizzling morning
check out of Radisson Blu

12:19 Stockholm Sodra — Copenhagen Central 17:31
🚃Stockholm to Copenhagen
5hr 15 mins

check into the Square
(1) stroll from hotel to Nyhavn
(2) dinner @ Nyhavnscafeen
(3) ice cream @ Vafflebageren

stay@The Square, Copenhagen
Rådhuspladsen 14, Copenhagen

27 Jun, Thur

(1)city roaming and shopping
(2)check out of the Square

16:00 Depart for airport
🚃 Central to airport (20 mins)

depart Copenhagen 18:30 Terminal 2
Turkish Airlines 1786

22:50 Istanbul

28 Jun, Fri

Istanbul 2:00 Turkish Airlines 54
arrive Singapore 17:50, Terminal 1


————————————————————————
Expenses:

Air tickets plus insurance — S$3029.70
Itinerary # 7429882098001

Grand Hotel, Copenhagen (2 nights)— S$697.833

Ferry (overnight + dinner) — S$473

Anker Hotel, Oslo (bf) (2 nights)— S$515.84

Queen's Hotel, Stockholm (bf) (2 nights)— S$389.67

Radisson Blu Royal Park Hotel, Stockholm (bf) (2 nights)— S$371.97

The Square, Copenhagen (1 night) — S$386.22

Train tickets (Oslo-Stockholm, Stockholm-Copenhagen) — S$615

Copenhagen Card x 3 (2-day) — €240 (S$367.66)

Oslo Pass x 3 (2-day) — S$313.7

Stockholm hop on-off boat — S$100
Stockholm bus/train — S$36.50
To Copenhagen airport — S$22.30

M1 — S$50

food plus spending
=1681.08 (you trip plus cash)


Cash (S$822)
DKK — S$330
NKK — S$255
SKR — S$237

M1 passport:
Turkey - Vodafone
Denmark - Telenor
Norway - Telenor
Sweden - Telenor


grand total = S$9050.473

Seoul trip (19-28 Nov 2019)

Seoul trip (19-28 Nov 2019)

18 Nov, Mon

22:00 To changi airport

19 Nov, Tue
SQ608, QUEWQ7

00:10 — 07:35

08:48 AREX airport to Seoul

10:00 left bags at Hotel

Michelin dumpling brunch

walk walk shop shop in Myeongdong

check into hotel

much needed rest

Chicken and beer dinner


MDSP1

20 Nov, Wed

Brunch at Mukshidona army stew
@Samcheondon

Yummy cake @ Samcheondon

Street food dinner

MDSP1

21 Nov, Thur

travel to Chuncheon

Myeong Dong to Chuncheon
myeong dong - Line 4 - 3 stops - Dongdaemun - change to Line 1 - 5 stops - Hoegi - change to GJ line - 2 stops to Sanbong - change to Gyeongchun line - 20 stops - Chuncheon

To Soyang Dam
From Chuncheon Station, take bus 12 to Soyang Dam

take ferry to see temple

back to Chuncheon

check into hotel

Chuncheon street
and DakGalbi

Veneziasuite
136 Hyoja-ro, Hyoja-dong Chuncheon-si

22 Nov, Fri

Hôtel to Gapyeong
hôtel to Chuncheon station by taxi - chuncheon station to Gapyeong station by G line

taxi to Nami island ferry point

Nami island

travel back to Seoul

Gapyeong station - Geongchun line - sangbong — GJ line — Hoeji — line 1 — Dondaemon — line 4 — Myeongdong

check into hotel

Lunchinner @ Yoganne

walked to Namdaemun to buy contact lens

back to hotel

MDSP1

23 Nov, Sat

late start
breakfast of kimbab and fake Issac toast

Line 2 to Ehwa Women Uni for shopping
Walked to 八色烤肉 for late lunch
super nice
taxi to Hongik Uni.
some shopping and watch street performances — it is so so crowded

back to hotel

MDSP1

24 Nov, Sun

breakfast at famous porridge place . yum. lots of Japanese.

mom and daughter shopping venture while dad stays in hotel room to rest

meet for Tonkatsu lunch. good.

more shopping

and then tea at Oscilluc

bought dumplings back for dinner

MDSP1

25 Nov, Mon

Dongdaemun walk about

tried but failed to find pork belly lunch place but found a really good chicken soup place for lunch

RBW lounge for tea - Mamamoo agent

back to Myeongdong and bought street food for dinner

MDSP1

26 Nov, Tue

Gangnam day!

Took line 2 to Seolleung to visit the Royal tombs of the Joseon dynasty. Tomb of King Seongjong and Queen Jeonghyeon (Seolleung) and King Jungjong (Jeongneung). Nice walk and serene atmosphere in the park.

Walked to COEX. Interesting library in Starfield mall. Super huge mall complex.... Super yummy beef rice soup at 河東馆 at Starfield mall.

Stroll along Garosu-Gil @ Sinsa. Shops along both sides of road. Head tea at Alley cafe.

Back to Myeongdong. Amelie bought her Mamamoo DVD and got additional poster! Bumped into Huai En at underground shopping street! Packed Yoogane fried rice and others for dinner.

MDSP1

27 Nov, Wed

Namdaemun shopping

lunch at Myeongdong dumplings again!!

more shopping before going to 20 Steps (CUBE entertainment) for tea

back to Myeongdong for more shopping before packing Oppadac and yoogane fried rice for dinner at hotel

MDSP1

28 Nov, Thur

packing and last minute shopping?

11:40 check out hotel

12:50 AREX from Seoul stn

SQ609
16:35 — 22:20



Expenditure:
SQ booking reference: QUEWQ7
S$2,508.60✅
Grab to Changi - S$10✅
Travel insurance — S$84.70✅
T money topped up - Won 80,000 (cash)✅S$93


Dumpling lunch 19/11 - Won 28,000 (cash)✅S$32.5
Street food 20/11 (cash)- Won 50,000✅S$60
Porridge 28/11 (cash)- Won 29,000 ✅S$33.5

Youtrip card:
AREX (airport to Seoul) — S$19.65✅
Kanu coffee - S$27.42✅
Fried chicken and beer dinner 19/11 - S$56.11✅
Mukshidona lunch 20/11 - S$29.26✅
dessert 19/11 - S$40.96✅
Ferry tickets - S$21.00✅
Lunch@Soyang Dam 21/11- S$43.16✅
Chicken galbi dinner 21/11 - S$46.66✅
tickets to Nami -S$41.98✅
yoganne lunch 22/11 - S$26.82✅
八色grill pork lunch 23/11 - S$57.03✅
porridge breakfast 24/11 - S$32.46✅
Tonkatsu lunch 24/11 - S$48.68✅
Oscilluc teatime 24/11 - S$25.85✅
Chicken soup lunch 25/11 - S$27.82✅
Shake burger 25/11 - S$8✅
RBW lounge 25/11 - S$9.85✅
Beef rice soup lunch 26/11 - S$69.55✅
Bubble tea @ Alley 26/11 - S$12.87✅
Yoogane fried rice 26/11 - S$6.95✅
Dumplings lunch 27/11 - S$33.71✅
tea @ 20 Space 27/11 - S$10.46✅
Oppadak and Yoogane dinner 27/11 - S$29.00✅
miscellaneous— S$125✅
AREX (to airport) - S$19.61✅

Hotels:
19-21 Nov @ Myeongdong Skypark I — $271.96✅
21-22 Nov @ VeneziaSuite — S$93.10✅
22-28 Nov @ Myongdong Skypark I — S$1,080.19✅

Arex counter
Incheon International Airport Terminal 1
Information Center, B1 Floor, Transportation Center of Incheon Int'l Airport Opening hours: 5:10am-10:40pm, daily


Transport:
S$2838.56
Hotels:
S$1445.25
Food:
853.7
——————
S$5117.51

Monday, October 10, 2016

Pre-suasion by Robert Caldini

Pre-suasion by Robert Caldini


The basic idea of pre-suasion is that by guiding preliminary attention strategically, its possible for a communicator to move recipients into agreement with a message before they experience it. 


The KEY is to focus them initially on concepts that are aligned associatively with the yet-to-be-encountered information.



  1. THE FRONTLOADING OF ATTENTION


A. Privileged moment --

The factor most likely to determine a person's choice in a situation is often not the one that offers the most accurate or useful counsel; instead, it is the one that has been elevated in attention at the moment of decision.


~ positive test strategy - for most people, when deciding whether a possibility is correct, they look for hits (for confirmation) rather than misses (for disconfirmation)


~ channeling - linking people you want to convince to something deemed positive or good or attractive and then uses that "chute" to send the person down the path you want him to take


~ leaning in - people are know to lean nearer to something when they are interested .... but getting people to lean nearer (or something similar like straightening up) will get them interested 



B. The importance of Attention --

The human tendency to assign UNDUE levels of importance to an idea as soon as one's attention is turned to it.  


~ what's salient is important - anything that draws focused attention to itself can lead observers to overestimate its importance <---> Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it


~ managing the background - seemingly dismissible information presented in the background captures a valuable kind of attention that allows for potent, almost entirely uncounted instances of influence.


~ inviting favourable evaluation - by asking someone to look into the positives of, say, a product will enhanced the likelihood that the product will be chosen by that someone (this method could back fire if the product in question has too many negatives)


~ shifting the task at hand - bringing attention away from an undesirable issue and to refocus the attention to somewhere that is easy to control 



C. What's focal is CAUSAL --

If people see themselves giving special attention to some factor, they become more likely to think of it as a cause.


In other words, what's salient is deemed important and what's focal is deemed causal.


~ taking a chance - lot numbers of drugs that caused death were seen as more likely to be the winning numbers of lotteries 


~ taking a life - the point of view is crucial => whoever's face was more visible was judged to be more causal



D. The Attractors --

Natural occurring commanders of attention : the sexual, the threatening, and the different.


~ while these are compelling stimuli, they are not simple  or unitary in their effects. Need to understand whether it is to appeal to "don't be left out" or "stand out in crowd" mentality --> eg. romance => uniqueness; fear => safety in crowd


~ investigatory reflex - in order to survive, any animal needs to be acutely aware of immediate changes to its environment, investigating and evaluating these differences for the dangers or opportunities they might present. so forceful is this reflex that it supersedes all other operations.



E. The Magnetizers -- 

There is considerable benefit to holding the attention of the audience to a particular stimulus as it raises the chance that the argument will go unchallenged => one effective way of competing is not giving the competitors air time.


~ self relevant - people are attracted by information or situation about themselves and therefore will pay lots of attention to them and blank out the surroundings => next-in-line effect - people tends not able to focus on things happen right before snd right after their turn to speak (lack of holding power due to distraction)


~ unfinished - not completing an activity can make everything about it more memorable (referred to as Zeigarnik effect) ==> not allowing yourself to finish a task at its logical end (ie, leaving behind unfinished part even when you know exactly what to do) will hold your attention to the task and allow you to continue your project easily as you will be able to easily restart working by first completing the unfinished task you purposely left behind 


~ mysterious - nothing can keep attention more than a mystery. the need to know the answer, the result, the reason will keep the audience's attention. how to do It? => (a) pose the mystery  (b) deepen the mystery (c) home in on proper explanation by considering alternate explanations (d) provide a clue to the proper explanation (e) resolve the mystery (f) draw the implication for the phenomenon under study


  1. THE ROLE OF ASSOCIATION 


F. The primacy of associations --

I link, therefore I think.  The concept selected as target of attention should ideally triggers responses favouring the desired change(s).


~ thinking is linking - associations are the building blocks of thought


~ purpose of speech - direct listeners' attention to a selected sector of reality and once that is accomplished, the listeners' existing associations to the now spot-lighted sector will take over to determine the reaction.


~ speak no evil, leak no evil - "he who wants to persuade should put his trust not in the right argument, but in the right word" - Joseph Conrad


~  metaphor is a meta-door (to change) - "if you want to change the world, change the metaphor" - Joseph Campbell 

eg, crime is like a beast => cage => jail as a solution 

vs crime is like a virus => unhygienic environment => removing unhealthy environment as a solution


~ negative associations can be transferred as easily as positive ones so watch out for it.


~ common things are great links - birth dates, first name, sports, language


~ make it rhyme and safe time - make it easy for others to remember so that it seems more "persuasive". easier to pronounce, easier to recognise, easier to .... => appeal to the naturally lazy brains


G. Persuasive geographies --

All the right places, all the right traces. The right environment or stimulus will trigger the right responses.


~ create your own inner geography - count your blessings at start of day, cultivate optimism, negate time spent dwelling into negatives => pre-suade yourself into happiness


~ watch out for what's already in you - being reminded of gender/ethnicity/height etc can improve or inhibit performance by setting up a pre-test inner geography


~ right environment for the right result - do not underestimate how the environment you are in (eg facing of table, amount of light) can affect results of your work (孟母三迁)



H. The mechanics of pre-suasion --

Set up and get the audience readied. So that they will be in the "pre-suaded" state and will be ready to be persuaded.


~ how far? - closer association will lead to higher pre-suasiveness.


~ how manufacturable? - an effective linkage can be constructed (Pavlov's dogs - there was no natural linkage between sound of bell and food).


~ if/when-then plans - make plans and draw up scenarios to get yourself readied for potential derailment that distract us from our purpose => going to a supermarket with the objective to buy healthy, nutritious and inexpensive food will neutralise the draw of heavily advertised, attractively packaged easy-to-reach items


~ correction: minding the gap - often times, simply recognising the undesired influences will be enough to block their effects. => "Let me ask you a question, for your information". => by asking about the weather, it will eliminate the "weather-induced" bias the respondent might have.=> more people remember products when their placements in TV shows are more prominent (especially prominent both visually and audibly) but these people do not favour these products when they shop => the "plot" was too obvious that the audience refuses to fall for it


~ gapping the mind - compared to natural psychological responses (NPR), decisions made based on extensive analysis require time, capacity and lots of will power. => when we are tired, rushed, stressed, lazy, overloaded with information, etc, we tend to take short-cut (NPR) to make decision 


  1. THE OPTIMIZATION OF PRE-SUASION


I. Six main roads to change --

Attention should be channeled to one of the following universal principles of influence : reciprocity, liking, authority, social proof, scarcity, and consistency.


~ reciprocity - meaningful, unexpected, customised gifts increase reciprocity rates


~ liking - highlighting similarities and providing compliments increase liking => respondents feel the "care" through these


~ social proof - validity and feasibility are at play when it comes to social proof => people must think that what they are about to do is "correct" as seen by others (validity) and doable as others have done the same (feasibility)


~ authority - the merit is the message -> the medium (through the message is disseminated) is the message -> the messenger (the sender) is the message. The quality of the messenger lies in his expertise and trustworthiness. => expertise -> brain scanning showed that areas of brains associated with evaluation did not light up when subjects were listening to advice from experts (not thinking). trustworthiness-> acknowledge a drawback before highlighting strengths often see increase in trustworthiness.


~ scarcity - any constraint on access increased the worth of what was being offered


~ consistency - normally we want to be (and to be seen) consistent with our existing commitments. so, if communicator can get us to take a pre-suasive step, even a small one, in the direction towards a particular idea, they might be able to increase our willingness to take a larger, congruent step towards that idea.


~ 3 stage approach - first stage involves cultivating positive associations (reciprocity and liking); second stage is to reduce uncertainty (social proof and authority); and final stage pushes for action (scarcity and consistency)


J. Being together --

The 7th universal principle of influence is Unity : the WE relationship. The audience identifies with the speaker.


Our ability to create change in others is often and importantly grounded in shared personal relationships, which create a pre-suasive context for assent. 


~ unity - the relationships that lead people to favour another most effectively are not those that allow them to say, "oh that person is like us"; they are the ones that allow people to say, "oh that person is OF us".


~ kinship - treated like a family member, the respondents will be more likely to be persuaded.

 

~ place - from home to immediate neighbours (locals) to region. sharing the same space leads to "togetherness" (and to influence) 


K. Acting together --

Beyond identifying with the speaker through, for example, common beliefs, the Unity factor gets intensified when the WE relationship is derived from audience and speaker acting together synchronously or collaboratively.


~ groups can promote unity, liking and subsequent supportive behaviour by first arranging for synchronous responding (eg, tapping of table while listening to same music) => music and dancing 



L. Ethical use --

Unethical use of the pre-suasion technique eventually will render the exercise ineffective.


M. Post-suasion -- 

How to make changes stick?


~ installing strong commitment - additional step to get respondents to register the temporary bias feeling (due to pre-suasion) will act to create a lasting bias feeling (french music causing positive view on a painting => rating the painting there and then will result in respondents liking the painting longer)


~ cueing up the cues - putting up reminders (eg posters) to remind yourself of the change you want to make; setting up what-if scenarios so that you know exactly how to react in the way consistent to your intended change. Reminders elevate a particular  issue to the top of list so that it will grab respondents' attention 



Conclusion



In large measure, who we are with respect to any choice is where we are, attentively, in the moment before the choice. We can be channeled to that privileged moment by (choice-relevant) cues we haphazardly bump into in our daily settings, or, of greater concern, by the cues a knowing communicator has tactically placed there; or, to much better and lasting effect, by the cues we have stored in these recurring sites to send us consistently in desired directions. In each case, the made moment is pre-suasive.




HCM notes:


  1. Always invert when analysing 
  2. Allow inconsistency to your responses to situation (case by case approach)








Saturday, May 28, 2016

Choice

"I arise in the morning torn between a desire to improve the world and a desire to enjoy the world. This makes it difficult to plan the day." -- E.B. White

Monday, May 9, 2016

潛規則



⊙銳氣藏於胸,和氣浮於臉,才氣見於事,義氣施於人。


⊙我們一定要明白,不要要求別人跟自己一模一樣……既是別人,就必然有"別"。

      

⊙不可隨便舉手,舉一只,是同意,舉兩只,是投降。

       

⊙如果不識貨,一時窮;如果不識人,一世苦。

       

⊙不要去欺騙別人,因為你能騙到的,都是愿意相信你的人。

        

⊙沒有人富得可以不要別人的幫助,也沒有人窮得不能在某個方面給別人幫助。

        

⊙真誠並不意味著一定要指責別人的缺點,但一定不要恭維別人的缺點。

        

⊙當我們是少數時,可以測試自己的勇氣;當我們是多數時,可以測試自己的寬容。

最

最开心的事——山穷水复疑无路,柳暗花明又一村。

最快的船——两岸猿声啼不住,轻舟已过万重山。

最难找的人——只在此山中,云深不知处。

最害羞的人——千呼万唤始出来,犹抱琵琶半遮面。

最多的愁——问君能有几多愁,恰似一江春水向东流。

最瘦的人——帘卷西风,人比黄花瘦。

最憔悴的人——衣带渐宽终不悔,为伊消得人憔悴。

最忧愁的人——抽刀断水水更流,举杯消愁愁更愁。

最深的情——桃花潭水深千尺,不及汪伦送我情。

最寂寞的时候——举杯邀明月,对影成三人。

最大的瀑布——飞流直下三千尺,疑是银河落九天。

最深的雪——夜来城外三尺雪,晓驾碳车辗冰辙。

最长的头发——白发三千丈,缘愁似个长。

最穷的女人——右手秉遗穗,左臂悬敝筐。

最长的脸——去年一滴相思泪,今年刚流到腮边。

最大的额头——未出庭院三五步,额头已到画堂前。

最大的门窗——窗含西岭千秋雪,门泊东吴万里船。

最恐惧的地方——千山鸟飞绝,万径人踪灭。

最无才的人——两句三年得,一吟双泪流。

最多的爱——后宫佳丽三千人,三千宠爱在一身。

最浓的情——金风玉露一相逢,便胜却人间无数。

最长的情——天长地久有时尽,此恨绵绵无绝期。

最苦的酒——酒入愁肠,化作相思泪。 

最孤独的人——孤舟蓑笠翁,独钓寒江雪。 

最喜欢喝酒的人——醉卧沙场君莫笑,古来征战几人回。

最悠闲的人——采菊东篱下,悠然见南山。

最勇敢的人——但使龙城飞将在,不教胡马度阴山。

最不安分的女人——春色满园关不住,一只红杏出墙来。

最忙碌的人——城头铁鼓声又震,匣里金刀血未干。

最有计谋的士兵——射人先射马,擒贼先擒王。

最有志气的人——至今思项羽,不肯过江东。

最孤独的人——前不见古人,后不见来者。

最美的女人——回媚一笑百媚生,六宫粉黛无颜色。

最高的危楼——危楼高百尺,手可摘星辰。

最远的朋友——海内存知己,天涯若比邻。

最难寻找的东西:上穷碧落下黄泉,两处茫茫皆不见。

最强烈的春风:忽如一夜春风来,千树万树梨花开。

醉得最死的人——昨夜风急雨骤,浓睡难消残酒。

酒量最大的人——百年三万六千日,一日须倾三百杯。

爬得最高的人——举手可近月,前行若无山。

脸皮最厚的人——待到重阳日,还来就菊花。

离家最久的人——少小离家老大回,乡音无改鬓毛衰。

架子最大的人——天子呼来不上船,自称臣是酒中仙。

被风吹得最远的房子——茅飞渡江撒江郊,高者挂之长林梢。

眼力最差的人——众里寻他千百度,蓦然回首,那人却在灯火阑珊处。

Investing: Five things NOT to do in a bear market





By Peter Hodson

   Jan. 23 (Financial Post) -- Most markets, and certainly

most currencies and commodities, are now officially in a bear

market. That's the arbitrary term for anything that is down 20

per cent from its peak. Of course, many stocks are down 40 or

50 per cent or more, so we might need a new term to describe

them - zombie market? That is, dead but still moving?


   Many investors fear a bear market, because it almost

guarantees they will lose money. It also creates opportunities,

so we would not suggest running away from a bear. With that in

mind, here are five things not to do in a bear market.


   (1) Don't change strategies 


If you are on a losing soccer

team, you don't decide at halftime to suddenly put your star

striker in goal. Changing strategies isn't going to work, so

stick with your game plan.


   If you are a value investor, don't start buying growth

stocks. Utilize your strengths. The market is bad enough

without you trying to learn a new investment strategy all of a

sudden.


   (2) Don't expect it to always be down 


After seeing relentless

selling, day after day after day, you might resign yourself to

continued losses. This is one of the worst things investors can

do. When everyone expects losses, that's usually about the time

markets turn around.


   Keep your eyes open for opportunities. There is always

something that might make you some money some day, but you need

to be watching for it. For example, shareholders who stuck with

Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd. are up 18 per cent so far this

year on a takeover bid.


   Whenever there is panic, selling opportunities abound, but

you can't benefit from them if you are hiding under your desk.


   (3) Don't buy expensive hedge products 


Exchange-traded-fund

providers and brokers might offer all sorts of ways to hedge

your portfolio in a bear market, from market-linked GICs to

triple-down leveraged short ETFs.


   These products are always expensive, and often do not work

as intended, even in a continued decline. The barn door is

already open, the horses have left.


   Whether these are appropriate products or not (almost

always not), the time to buy market insurance is before the

bear market has hit, not after.


   (4) Don't panic and sell In a bear market


many so-called

experts will start touting doom-and-gloom scenarios. Like RBS's

announcement to "sell everything," or others talking about

"financial Armageddon."


   It can be scary listening to these folks, but there have

been bear markets in the past, and there will be bear markets

in the future. The world, contrary to popular belief, is not

ending just because oil has broken US$30, and the Nasdaq is

down 12 per cent.


   Old investors, like me, have seen it all before. Do not

panic and sell. You may see more losses, but panicking is never

a solid investment strategy.


   (5) Don't bet on a reversal 


Many investors bought energy

stocks when oil hit US$40 on the belief that there was no way

oil could drop to US$30. Well, here we are, well below US$30

and many are predicting US$10 as the next stop.


   Likewise, Baytex Energy Corp. investors thought its stock

might turn around at $10 per share, yet this week it dropped

below $2. I do not know where oil is going to bottom out, and

neither do you. Just because something has dropped 50 per cent

does not mean it cannot drop another 75 per cent. Do not bet on

any recovery. Stick with a strategy and diversify.


   


Peter Hodson, CFA, is CEO of 5i Research Inc., an

independent research network providing conflict-free advice to

individual investors (www.5iresearch.ca).