Wednesday, September 24, 2008

The River -- Thich Nhat Hanh

This is my summarized version of the short essay, The River, by Thich Nhat Hanh


Once there was a beautiful river. She was happy.

One day, she noticed clouds floating in the sky. She loved the clouds and wished to possess one. She chased the clouds but could not reach them as they were high in the sky.

A strong wind came one day and blew all the clouds away. The sky was empty. The river was sad as she was used to chasing after clouds. She wanted to die as there was nothing for her now.

One night, she looked deeply into herself and suddenly realized that clouds were made of water and that she herself was water.

The next morning, she saw the blue sky for the first time. She had never noticed it as she was only interested in the clouds.

That afternoon the clouds returned. She said hello to them. When the clouds wanted to go away, she said goodbye. She now no longer wanted to possess them.

That evening she opened herself to the sky and received the image of a full moon.

She realized that everything beautiful is already there. There is nothing to chase after.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Just do it

I always wondered why somebody did not do something about that,

then I realized I was somebody.


-- Lily Tomlin

Basic Concepts of Value Investing

Cannot remember where I got these from:

1. No market participants is assumed to be crazy or stupid.

2. Value is a dynamic concept.

3. Market price is NOT something to predict but something of which to take ADVANTAGE of.

4. There is NO general risk; only SPECIFIC RISK.

5. Every investment has something wrong with it.

Monday, September 15, 2008

Titanic and Noah's Ark

Titanic was built by professionals and steered by professionals.

Bloated egos (too big to fail) and distracted sailors (not monitoring closely) saw the Big Ship end in sorrows.

On the other hand,

The Ark was built by amateurs. Filled it with the right stuff and have faith.

Benjamin Graham -- words of wisdom

“I want to say that at least half of all the pleasures that I have enjoyed in life have come from the world of the mind, from things of beauty and culture in literature and in art. All this is offered to everybody, virtually free of charge, except for the interest to start and the relatively slight effort to appreciate the riches spread out before you …. take that initial interest, if possible: make that continued effort. Once you have found it – the life of culture – never let it go.”

Benjamin Graham, at his 80th birthday party, La Jolla, California

Karl Popper -- The Logic of Scientific Discovery

The Logic of Scientific discovery:

3 conditions:

  1. the Starting conditions
  2. the Reversible Hypothesis
  3. the Ending conditions

3 applications:

i. the explanation

ii. the prediction

iii. the back testing

If you are given (a) and (c), you try to do (i) using (b).

If you are given (a) and (b), you try to do (ii) to find (c).

All these based on (b) being a reversible hypothesis and that the hypothesis itself does not affect the outcome of (c).

It is easier to apply in natural sciences. Examples, clean room, controlled experiments.

The usage in social sciences, especially in Economics and Finance, is doomed with complications and abuses.

Example, the Hypothesis of Singapore having 6.5 million in population and ending with prediction of huge demands in highly priced condominiums is to me a “tainted experiment”.

Stability leads to leverage that leads to instability

“Investment must be financed, and how it is financed makes a difference. As the portion of investment that is externally financed grows, fragility increases. However, leveraging by using external funds increases profits so long as things go well. In a run of good times, such as those experienced in the early post-war period, most undertakings are successful. This encourages greater leverage, and margin of safety are reduced as the value of liquidity in such a period declines. Financial relations become more complex, with more layers of debts are interposed between income generation and income receipt. If one debtor defaults, a snowball of defaults can result since each creditor is also a debtor to some other creditor – and so on up through a long chain of commitments. To the extent that the institutional structure and swift intervention can constrain the crisis, risky financial practices are validated and still riskier innovations are encouraged. Fragility will rise on a long-term trend, with increasingly severe financial crises. If deep recessions can be avoided, the system is never cleansed of excessive debt – what Minsky termed “financial simplification” that used to occur in depressions, when all debt is wiped out and only equity ownership remains.”

Excerpt from the Introduction to “John Maynard Keynes” by Hyman Minsky

The Ten Commandments for Business Failure

The Ten Commandments for Business Failure

-- Donald R. Keough (ex CEO of Coca-Cola)

If you want to make sure your business will FAIL, then do the following well:

1. Quit taking risks
2. Be inflexible
3. Isolate yourself

4. Assume infallibility
5. Play the game close to the foul line

6. Don’t take time to think
7. Put all your faith in experts and outside consultants

8. Love your bureaucracy
9. Send mixed messages
10. Be afraid of the future

Wisdom of Charlie Munger

From Poor Charlie! by Charlie Munger

5 helpful notions in problem-solving

1. It is usually best to simplify problems by deciding big “no-brainer” question first.
(What is it that you want to achieve?)

2. Reality is often revealed in mathematics.
(See if the numbers check out)

3. It is not enough to think problems through forward. You must also think in reverse. Invert, always invert!
(Work backwards with conclusion in mind)

4. The best and most practical wisdom is elementary academic wisdom. However, you must think in a multidisciplinary manner. And you have to do the thinking yourself!
(To a man with a hammer, every problem seems to be a nail. Open you mind and THINK)

5. Big effects, or lollapalooza effect, will often come only from large combinations of factors.
(This is when you get Super insights)



On Investing

1. The turtles who outrun the hares are learning machines. If you stop learning in this world, the world rushes right by you.
Read more, company reports, books, anything.

2. I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn't like it -- indeed, especially when one doesn't like it.
Get unstuck.

3. It is obvious that the winner has to be very selective. It's been obvious to me since very early in life. I don't know why it's not obvious to very many other people.
Good opportunity is hard to come by. Be prepared and grab it.

4. Mankind invented a system to cope with the fact that we are so intrinsically lousy at manipulating numbers. It's called the graph.
Charting does not work.

5. Some people seem to think there's no trouble just because it hasn't happened yet. If you jump out the window at the 42nd floor and you're still doing fine as you pass the 27th floor, that doesn't mean you don't have a serious problem. I would want to address the problem right now.
It is okay to be early.


10-step Investment checklist

1. Measure riskAll investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational.
It's crucially important to understand that from time to time, your investments won't turn out the way you wanted. To protect your portfolio, don't set yourself up for complete failure in the first place. Giving yourself a large margin of safety, avoiding people of questionable character, and only taking on risk when you can be sure you'll be satisfactorily rewarded are all steps in the right direction. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) might have perfectly bright futures, but when their shares are priced for perfection, they might nonetheless prove too risky for savvy investors.

2. Be independentOnly in fairy tales are emperors told they're naked.
With stockbrokers often rewarded for activity, not successful investments, it's critically important to make sure you believe that what you're doing is right. Chasing others' opinions may seem logical, but investors like Munger and Buffett often succeed by going against the grain. Big Berkshire investments such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and more recently Petrochina (NYSE: PTR), were largely ignored by the masses when they were first made.

3. Prepare aheadThe only way to win is to work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights.
It shouldn't surprise you that the best investments aren't the ones we typically read about in the paper. The diamonds in the rough are out there, but finding them requires effort. Buffett reads thousands of annual reports to cultivate ideas -- even if he only comes up with a few candidates each year. Munger advocates a constant curiosity for nearly everything in life. If you never stop asking the "whys" in what you do, you won't have trouble staying motivated.

4. Have intellectual humilityAcknowledging what you don't know is the dawning of wisdom.
Perhaps most crucially to Berkshire's success, its leaders never stray away from their comfort zones. In investing, a clear idea of what the business will look like in the future counts most. If you struggle to comprehend what the business does today, you might as well be throwing darts. While companies like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) are certainly titans in their own right today, they might look drastically different in five to 10 years.

5. Analyze rigorouslyUse effective checklists to minimize errors and omissions.
The numbers don't lie. When researching investments, Buffett and Munger like to try to estimate the security's worth before they even look at its price. They are businessmen, not stock-market junkies. They focus their brainpower on the value of businesses, not convoluted economic forecasts or intricate market-timing techniques. Munger is incredibly brilliant, but the analytical rigor of his investment decisions is based around simplicity, not complexity.

6. Allocate assets wiselyProper allocation of capital is an investor's No. 1 job.
In the early days of Munger's investment partnership, he held very few securities. When good ideas came, he poured significant capital into them; otherwise, he simply enjoyed the California sun. The amount of money employed in each of your investments should relate directly to its attractiveness. When you find a great investment, don't be afraid to bet big on it.

7. Have patienceResist the natural human bias to act.
Munger said it best himself: "Half of Warren's time is sitting on his ass and reading; the other half is spent talking on the phone or in person to a highly gifted person that he trusts and trust him." While it can be tempting to jump in and out of the market, true fortunes are made from big commitments in quality companies, held indefinitely. When you're done with that, find a hobby. Spending all day watching stock tickers won't do you much good.

8. Be decisiveWhen proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction.
This also goes back to not following the herd. When others are jubilant, you should be scared, and vice versa. Don't let others' emotions sway you; the market masses should help you find opportunities in their absence, not guide you down their own path to mediocrity.

9. Be ready for changeAccept unremovable complexity.
Investing success requires us to accept inevitable changes. Munger and Buffett hated railroads for decades, but as the times changed, they threw their old thoughts out the door and invested billions. The world around us won't always conform to our preferences and prejudices, and sometimes our best ideas will prove incorrect. If you aren't willing to roll with a changing market, you may find yourself fighting a lost cause.

10. Stay focusedKeep it simple and remember what you set out to do.
In chasing little, unimportant things, we often overlook huge and critical factors. But by keeping it simple, we can fixate on what really matters: buying good companies at a good price, and holding them until they're fully priced.


On Cheating

“A very significant fraction of the people in the world will steal if (A) it’s very easy to do and (B) there’s practically no chance of being caught. And once they start stealing, the consistency principle – which is a big part of human psychology – will soon combine with operant conditioning to make stealing habitual. It’s very important to create human systems that are hard to cheat. Otherwise, you’re ruining your civilization because these big incentives will create incentive-caused bias and people will rationalize that bad behaviour is OK. Then, if somebody else does it, now you’ve got at least two psychological principles: incentive-caused bias plus social proof. Not only that, but you get Serpico effects: If enough people are profiting in a general social climate of doing wrong, then they’ll turn on you and become dangerous enemies if you try and blow the whistle.”


On Career

· Don’t sell anything you wouldn’t buy yourself
· Don’t work for anyone you don’t respect and admire.
· Work only with people you enjoy.


On spending

One of the great defenses if you’re worried about inflation is not to have a lot of silly needs in your life


On relationship

What’s the best way to get a good spouse? The best single way is to deserve a good spouse because a good spouse is by definition not nuts

Simply safe

When an investment is difficult to understand,

It increases the degree of uncertainty in investors’ mind.

The degree of uncertainty increases in magnitude in a bear market.

As long as there is complexity, there is a limit as to how risk-free an investment can be.



Sunday, September 14, 2008

Six Medals by Edward de Bono

The 6 value medals are:

Gold (most valuable; does not tarnish) --human value, the value that affect people

Silver (purpose; efficiency) -- organizational, financial values

Steel (strong) -- quality, the value of intended action, direction

Glass (fragile) -- innovation, creative value

Wood (natural and complex) -- environmental value, knock-on impact (affecting 3rd party)

Brass (fake gold) -- perceptual, view from outside

Companies need to create positive medal values to excel. Decisions made should be purposeful for the advancement of the company (SILVER); supported by improvement in product/service quality (STEEL) and promotion of human values of employees and customers (GOLD); and built on creative innovation (GLASS), benefit surrounding environment (WOOD) and generate positive public perception (BRASS).

See Me Beautiful -- author unknown

see me beautiful; see me beautiful

look for the best in me

it's what i really am; all I want to be

it may take some time; it may be hard to find

but,

see me beautiful; see me beautiful

each and every day

could you take a chance; could you find a way

to see me shining through

in everything I do

and see me beautiful

Six Frames by Edward de Bono

Six Frames for thinking about information -- by Edward de Bono

-- Attention is key to thinking
-- Weakness is that attention is pulled (eg. you pay attention to someone rolling on the floor)
-- Perception we have dictates our thinking and so if we do not pay attention to our perception we might end up with wrong conclusions

---> We need to direct attention, using a framework

The 6 frames are:

Triangle frame
-- purpose (why the info? what info? where to seek the info?)

Circle frame
-- accuracy (attention to accuracy of info; checking on the accuracy; use with care if doubtful)

Square frame
-- point of view (attention on the degree of bias of info)

Heart frame
-- interest (attention to the matters of interest; how interesting is the info to us?)

Diamond frame
-- value (attention to the value of the info; use the 6 value medals*)

Slap frame
-- outcome (attention to the outcome of analyzing the info; agree or disagree? next step?)

* summary of Six Medals by Edward de Bono

Gold medal -- human value
Silver medal -- organization value (eg. company, family)
Steel medal -- quality value
Glass medal -- innovation value
Wood medal -- value to the World (eg. environment)
Brass -- perception value

Saturday, September 13, 2008

The mis-directed Billions

Have a cuppa at ABC coffee joint and it will set you back by about S$5.00.

Cost of coffee beans to make the coffee <>

Labour cost <>

Marketing/advertising cost > S$ 1.00? (20%)

Rental cost > S$ 1.50? (30%)

* note that the author did no research on the above and is purely based on the gut

More than 50% of a cuppa is spent on rental and advertising costs. For some products like toothpaste and shampoo, much more is spent on advertising. Why? The products, coffee or toothpaste, are essentially generic. Marketing and advertising are the way to get customers to buy a product. For coffee, the location of the stores play an important part.

You can expect how much a company spend in trying to improve the product given that it is the marketing and location of stores that matters more to final sales.

Look at automobile industry. A car is sold by its image, less so on technical superiority or even reliability. I guess as long as the number of times the car break down is less than the number of times someone woo and ahh at your car, you will find it worth-while?

Engineers are paid poorly compared to their colleauges in the marketing department. And to think that as an engineer you actually have to roll up your sleeves and getting dirty and smelly, as opposed to the marketing guy tee-ing off with customers at a golf course, who can blame the best brains flocking to business/marketing courses?

So, as the engineering faculty gets the brain-drain and eventually leading to stagnant product developments, the way to differentiate one company's car versus the others is through -- marketing and advertising.

As consumer, we are likely to continue paying more to marketing/advertising/rental space than to the actual end product. This madness is directing billions of dollars away from R&D for better products -- to the golf courses and real estate prices.

Will this madness come to an end? Maybe the internet will?

Retirement is another Job

--- Retirement is a job that is fully or partially paid by your retirement account ---

--- If you want a high paying retirement job, than you need to start doing something about fattening up your retirement account --

--- If you want to be hired by YOU for that retirement job, than you need to start doing something about building up a good CV to impress yourself at the job interview --

--- If you do not want to be fired by YOU from your retirement job, you need to start doing something now to train yourself up so that you can do a good job at retirement"

--- If you have done a good job on your CV and have enough stashed away financially, you stand a chance to be hired by your spouse for that Retirement Job ---

Dilemmas



Live the present; plan for the future
 
Value; mark-to-market
 
Contentment; hunger for success
 
Be happy; think of worse case
 
 

Friday, September 12, 2008

Knowing versus Doing

Health is important -- we need to eat moderately, exercise, sleep well, drink less alcohol, .....

We all know that.

Financial planning -- expense less than you earn and invest the excess in assets rather than in liabilities.

We all know that.

And what do we do?

Most of us eat too much, exercise little, stay up late doing blogs, binge, ..., spend on unnecessary stuff, buy liabilities like cars, speculate in the stocks rather than investing in companies, ...

In short, we know what to do but we don't do them.

We read books on value investing and nod our heads. We then turnaround and buy some tickers without doing enough research work.

We read books on fitness, as if by reading it will make us fit.

We read books on diet, while snacking on potato chips.