Tuesday, March 27, 2012

The Behavior Gap -- Carl Richards

The Behavior Gap -- Carl Richards

1. We don't beat the market, the market beats us

Return of investments > Investors' return ==> behavior gap
Investor's psychology ==> flipping between Fear and Greed
Cost of mistakes is proportional to level of confidence
The greater fool theory ==> doing something dumb and hoping someone else is dumber

The process ::
a. Have a real plan (know where you are, where you want to be, and how to behave to get there)
b. find investments to populate your plan ==> this comes at the end of planning process
c. Admit there is a problem
d. Face the fact that cash is not a solution to a crisis
e. develop a checklist of questions to ask before you make major financial decisions
f. Take your time
g. Incorporate new information slowly
h. Focus on your own behavior, not the market's behavior

2. The perfect investment

Stop looking for ::
a. Perfect investment
b. super fund
c. Super stock
d. Super guru to follow

Chance of a fund will stink is direct proportional to its expense ratio

Bad decision that led to good outcome is STILL Bad decision

3. Ignore advice, make fun of forecasts

Personal finance is Personal
Their advice, your money
Chance of a forecast being right increases with the number of forecasts

4. Life planning, not financial planning

Memorable experiences WITH people you love ==> a great source of Happiness

Happiness ::
Increases with income initially but flatten out quite soon after a reasonable lifestyle is attained
Decreases as you are trying to keep up with the Joneses
Increases with positive relationships and experiences
Decreases with the time spent looking for it

Setting up an emergency fund ==> important and Urgent
Estate Planning ==> important but not urgent
Lists of stocks you "must buy now" ==> urgent but NOT important
What Jim Crammer said last month ==> Not important and Not urgent

5. Too much information

Chances you will make a mistake is proportionate to your awareness of cover stories about market direction
Long term wealth is inversely proportionate to the frequency you follow the market

6. Plans are worthless

The planning process is important, not the Plan

A traditional financial plan ==> a bunch of assumptions over a long time
Focus on things that matters and you have control on

7. Feelings

Mistakes is proportionate to emotional attachment to an investment

Overnight test -- assuming all the stocks in your portfolio are being liquidated overnight, will you buy them back today assuming there is no transaction costs? If the answer is NO to some stocks, maybe it's time to sell them?

Don't get stuck with a number ==> it is not where you bought them that is important

8. You're responsible for your behavior (but you can't control the results)

Conflict of interest ==> research required
"Hope" is NOT a strategy
Investing is NOT entertainment

9. When we talk about money

Quality decisions come from great conversations

We have different views on money and value ==> talk about it so we understand each other

10. Simple, not easy

We often resist simple solution because it requires us to change our behavior
===> that's why when trying to plan for retirement fund, we think of buying super stocks, super funds rather than spending less

Money problems increases with instances of Instant Gratification
-- try to put on hold a purchase
-- go on a multi week buying fast
-- track your spending
-- put a price tag on your goals
-- think about what you earn if you invested the money instead of spending it

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